Category Archives: Light Rail

all aboard

A referendum for the future

The votes are counted, the winners declared, and the dust has settled.

What to make of the election that was to be the “LRT referendum we’ve been waiting for?” If it truly was such a referendum, that score has been settled: despite an enormous budget to support of a candidate who made his name known fighting the region in the courts on LRT, despite a former MP and a former weatherman both with massive name recognition also championing the cause, no LRT opponent was able to muster the support they thought their issue deserved.

That’s not to say that the 76% of voters who didn’t vote for Jay Aissa are all pro-LRT, or that the almost 70% of residents who didn’t even come out to vote (come on, people!) are all ardent LRT supporters. Certainly not. But what the results clearly indicate is that overall, the people of Waterloo Region are satisfied with the direction we are moving in.

And why not? Over the last decade we have seen the resurgence of our community’s once-dilapidated cores, a resilient economy which (while not universally strong) has not only survived but thrived in the face of the decline of a headliner employer, and the emergence of this region as the most progressive small city in Ontario for tackling the challenges of growth, sprawl, and sustainability.

On the basis of our success so far, a majority of people are willing to accept that we must continue to plan for the future, and that we need continue to innovate. Many still reserve judgement on the most visible aspect of this plan (LRT), but they’re not interested in opposing it. Turning back now flies in the face of our community tradition of barn-raising and reinvention. Our no-nonsense progressiveness brooks no nonsense. This is the real reason the cancel-LRT crusade failed.

For those of us who have supported and advocated for LRT over the years, today is a very good day: it marks the end of activity to halt ION which will roll out in 2017. But it is not the end to the challenges our region will face as it grows up. Certainly, last night’s results do not guarantee the success of ION light rail transit.

Only you can do that.

Over the next three years, a very complex project will need to come in on time, and on budget… and it will then need to meet or exceed expectations. The early signs are good, but we have no certainty that it will continue. We have newly elected leaders who have committed to careful stewardship of what the previous council initiated, but that’s not enough. We all need to stay engaged and hold our regional government’s feet to the fire. We need to be the voice of conscience and of reason. We have to keep the pressure on council to make good decisions not just about LRT, but on transit as a whole, and the other complex issues that tie into it: growth management, affordable housing, and debt.

In June 2011, on the eve of the council vote on LRT, I wrote:

After last Saturday’s rally, Jean Haalboom, one of the few supporting councillors willing to stand up for rapid transit and LRT, said to a few of us that we can’t just drop this issue on Thursday if this vote passes. We have to keep on it. 2014’s municipal vote could become a last-gasp money-burning cancellation movement if we go silent again after the immediate fight is won.

Most of us support LRT because we’re thinking about the future, right? Well, it’s time we take the long view. LRT doesn’t get delivered if and when Council votes yes. In the years to come, we need to shepherd it home.

It’s amazing how close that possible future actually came to becoming reality. The immediate fight was won, and then had to be won again, and again. Now we can say with some finality that “yes, LRT will be delivered.” Now we can focus on making sure that what is delivered lives up to the vision.

After all, we’re not done yet: Cambridge has been left out in the cold, and one of the most meaningful gestures we can make to heal the rift and connect our three cities is to extend ION in Phase 2 without hesitation. Connecting Cambridge might take several years, but it needs to happen so we can start to think of ourselves not as three separate cities, but one region.

We live in  the 10th largest urban area in Canada, but our own community self-image is still catching up to this reality. Over half a million people call Waterloo Region home, and we can expect another 200,000 in a couple of decades. Our region has some serious challenges to face in the coming years.

This election may have been a referendum after all. Will we confront the challenges that come with growth? Will we continue to plan and innovate to create a more livable, sustainable place to call home? Are we ready to invest in our future?

The result appears to be a resounding Yes.

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Screenshot from the game "Mini Metro"

TriTAG calls on Aissa to disclose transit plan

Municipal candidates opposed to ION light rail asked to provide details on what they would build instead

The Tri-Cities Transport Action Group is calling on regional chair candidate Jay Aissa and other municipal candidates opposed to the ION light rail project to reveal to the public what rapid transit solution they would implement as an alternative to ION. To date, TriTAG is not aware of any detailed, fully costed rapid transit plan from any candidate promising to cancel ION.

“Mr. Aissa says he has a plan for transit that is somehow both cheap and comprehensive, yet he hasn’t shown it to voters,” said Michael Druker of TriTAG. “We believe the public deserves to hear the details.”

“If Jay Aissa has the respect for voters he claims and truly believes in transparency, he will share the details of his supposed ‘plan’,” added Druker.

Specifically, TriTAG is asking Aissa and other candidates to provide details concerning:

  • the form of rapid transit they would build (e.g. more iXpress buses, buses with dedicated lanes, subways, etc.);
  • the route their planned rapid transit would take;
  • the debt and tax impact of their plan for both capital and operating expenses, and
  • the timeline for implementation of their planned rapid transit network

“If Mr. Aissa’s plan is dedicated rapid bus service for the ION route, that means more debt and higher taxes over the lifetime of the project. Ottawa has shown BRT means sky-high operating costs and a system that must be converted to light rail at huge expense,” said Taylor Byrnes of TriTAG. “The public needs to know whether Mr. Aissa’s plan can overcome both the cancellation costs for ION and high expenses to meet swelling ridership demand; or whether Mr. Aissa is just making empty promises he can’t keep.”

ION went through a decade of planning and public debate in Waterloo Region. If Mr. Aissa and other candidates want to overturn it overnight, TriTAG asks them to disclose their transit plans so voters have the weekend to scrutinize them before heading to the polls.

More TriTAG election resources:

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Myth 2 Cost Estimate methodology

In debunking Myth 2, we estimated the cost of running bus service to equal ION’s ridership in 2017 to cost $23.6 million, and by 2031 to cost $52.9 million. In comparison, the operations and financing cost of ION is $30 million a year. How did we reach these figures?

We started with the current situation: transit ridership has been growing much faster than population, but roughly in proportion to the amount of transit service being provided (measured in “service hours”– the number of hours each bus is providing scheduled transit service.)

GRT RidershipSource: Regional Transportation Master Plan progress report, Jan 2014, page 11

Our estimate is based on the cost of providing enough service hours for a growing ridership along the Central Transit Corridor in KW.

Cost per service hour is $138/hr for Waterloo Region in 2012 (sourced from the OMBI 2012 Performance Measurement Report, page 187). This figure includes amortization, meaning it accounts for the cost of the vehicle as well.

Given that we’re focusing on comparative costs for ION stage 1, all numbers for 200 iXpress have been limited to the Kitchener-Waterloo portion only.

Ridership targets for ION are 25,000 (2017) and 56,000 (2031). passengers per day. (Source)  Central transit corridor ridership (route 7 and route 200 KW only) was 20,000 in 2013.

Our cost estimate for serving 20,000 passengers is $18.9 million. Spreadsheet.

Because the central transit corridor bus frequency is already driven by ridership, and peak time buses are routinely full, supporting further ridership requires a higher number of buses.

  • Cost of supporting 25,000 riders = ($18.9M / 20,000) * 25,000 = $23.6M
  • Cost of supporting 56,000 riders = ($18.9M / 20,000) * 56,000 = $52.9M

Given that operator hours (i.e. wages) drive a significant part of service hour costs, we could possibly reduce this figure by introducing higher capacity buses (such as articulated buses.) However, our observation from the OMBI report is that Ottawa’s service hour cost is higher partly because they use higher capacity buses.

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ION progress update report

Find our election survey for Waterloo Region, Cambridge, Kitchener, and Waterloo candidates at tritag.ca/election2014

The Tri-cities Transport Action Group would like to make the following statement regarding Planning and Works Committee Report E-14-117 ION Construction – Progress Update:

TriTAG is pleased to see efforts well underway to build ION. With $739 million spent or committed by the time the next council takes office, and a further $1 billion in private investment along the Central Transit Corridor, the notion that this election is about whether or not to build light rail should finally be laid to rest.

TriTAG looks forward to hearing from all candidates about how they plan over the next four years to ensure the successful completion and operation of ION, and maximize the return on our transit investment. (more…)

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tickets

Free transit: a solution for Waterloo Region?

Find our election survey for Waterloo Region, Cambridge, Kitchener, and Waterloo candidates at tritag.ca/election2014

A new candidate , John Wolf, has officially entered the race for Regional Chair. Wolf claims that as Chair, he would try to cancel light rail, and as an alternative, investigate making transit free in an effort to boost ridership.

Last month, TriTAG investigated the claims of (as of yet unregistered) Regional Chair candidate Jay Aissa concerning the light rail project. Today, we will explore the issue of free transit and try to address two questions that arise from Wolf’s platform: is free transit a viable alternative to light rail and rapid transit, and what would the impact of free public transit be on Waterloo Region?

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Fact-checking municipal campaigns: Jay Aissa

Check out our Mythbusting the Election  series for more fact-checking and mythbusting of candidates like Jay Aissa.

Find our election survey for Waterloo Region, Cambridge, Kitchener, and Waterloo candidates at tritag.ca/election2014

In 2011, when light rail was being debated and ultimately decided upon, there was a great deal of misinformation being spread about light rail and its suitability to Waterloo Region. During that time, TriTAG debunked many of these myths so that an informed public debate could occur.

As the 2014 municipal election period builds momentum, false information about light rail is once again emerging. As democracy depends on an informed electorate, we’ve decided to fact-check egregious statements candidates make regarding light rail and other issues for which we advocate. We begin with Jay Aissa, who in his interview shortly after declaring his intent to run for Regional Chair, made several false claims concerning the light rail project.

(more…)

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